According to Business Insider, Morgan Stanley predicts nearly half of all US e-commerce shoppers will use AI agents by 2030, potentially adding $115 billion to online spending. The investment firm calls this “agentic commerce” the next substantial GenAI-enabled unlock for retail. Major retailers including Amazon, Walmart, and Target have already launched their own AI shopping assistants like Rufus and Sparky. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in October that Rufus alone could drive $10 billion in incremental annualized sales. Meanwhile, OpenAI just added shopping research features to ChatGPT this week, and Google enhanced its AI shopping tools ahead of the holiday season.
The Retail AI Arms Race
Here’s the thing – we’re watching a massive land grab happening in real time. Every major retailer knows that whoever controls the AI shopping assistant could effectively become the front door to e-commerce. Amazon’s Rufus is already expected to contribute over $700 million in operating profit this year, which is staggering for a tool that’s still essentially in its infancy.
But what happens when these AI agents start genuinely comparing prices across platforms? That’s where things get really interesting. We could see a fundamental shift in pricing power away from individual retailers and toward the AI platforms that consumers trust most. Basically, the AI that gives you the best deal consistently wins your loyalty.
Winners and Losers
So who benefits from this shift? Amazon seems positioned well since they’re already the starting point for most online shopping. But OpenAI’s new shopping research feature could make ChatGPT a serious competitor. And Google’s AI calling local stores on your behalf? That’s a game-changer for bridging online and offline retail.
The losers might be traditional digital advertising platforms. If AI agents are making recommendations based on your actual needs rather than paid placements, where does that leave search ads and sponsored product listings? Morgan Stanley specifically mentioned implications for “digital ad players” – and that’s probably an understatement.
The Grocery Breakthrough
Morgan Stanley identified personalized grocery shopping as the “key unlock” for agentic commerce growth. Think about it – grocery shopping is repetitive, time-consuming, and perfect for AI optimization. After groceries, they see household products, personal care, and apparel benefiting most.
Jassy admitted the customer experience still needs improvement, which tells you we’re in the early innings. But the potential is massive – AI could finally crack categories that have resisted full e-commerce penetration. If AI can handle your weekly grocery run better than you can, that’s a fundamental behavior change worth billions.
