According to The Wall Street Journal, Governor Gavin Newsom is being anointed by polls and pundits as the Democratic frontrunner for the 2028 presidential nomination. This comes as U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index, released Monday, shows California remains the number one state for outbound one-way moves for the fourth time in five years. Representative Kevin Kiley highlighted the report on X, noting the state’s consistent population loss. The data reveals residents are fleeing to states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, driven by what the Journal’s Allysia Finley calls “progressive governance” burdens including high taxes, energy costs, and housing regulations. This exodus presents a stark contrast to Newsom’s national political ascent.
The Ultimate Exit Poll
Here’s the thing about U-Haul data: it’s a brutally honest, real-time referendum on governance. People vote with their feet and their wallets. And for years now, they’ve been casting a massive “no” vote on the California model that Newsom embodies. The Journal piece frames it perfectly: people can move to Texas, but as federal taxpayers, they’re still stuck funding California’s policy failures through bailouts and subsidies. It’s one thing to have a political opponent criticize you. It’s another when your own residents are renting trucks to get out.
The Democratic Dilemma
So why is the party seemingly rushing toward this same cliff? After the Biden age dilemma, you’d think Democrats would be hyper-sensitive to candidate flaws. But it seems like they’re drawn to a certain style—coastal, media-savvy, rhetorically slick—despite the tangible results. Newsom can give a great cable news hit. But can he point to a functional homeland? The data screams “no.” I think there’s a massive disconnect between the bubble of political commentators and the lived experience of people dealing with crime, unaffordability, and chaos. It’s a branding-over-reality problem.
Other News Briefs
In a related note on governance, the piece mentions the Corporation for Public Broadcasting board voting to dissolve the organization. That ends a long experiment in state-backed media. And in lighter fare, the column includes a few “Bye-kus” – haiku send-offs – for figures like Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Minnesota’s Tim Walz. It’s a quirky touch in an otherwise data-heavy critique.
The 2028 Reckoning
Look, 2028 is a long way off. A lot can change. But this U-Haul trend isn’t new; it’s an entrenched pattern. Basically, Newsom starts any national campaign with a gigantic, flashing vulnerability. Republicans won’t just talk about California’s problems. They’ll show the moving vans. They’ll interview the families who left. It’s a powerful, visceral argument. If Democrats think Biden’s age was a tough sell, wait until they try to sell “California success” to a nation that has watched its middle class evacuate. The polling might look good now in a hypothetical match-up, but the growth index tells a much more compelling story.
