According to Business Insider, BYD reported a 12% year-over-year decline in global sales for October 2025, marking the company’s second consecutive monthly drop. The Chinese EV giant also revealed profits fell by approximately one-third year-over-year in recent earnings, with its stock price plunging around 36% since hitting a record high in May. Meanwhile, competitors including Geely, Xpeng, and Nio all reported record monthly sales in October, with Geely’s success driven by its low-cost Galaxy brand including the $9,250 Xingyuan compact EV that directly competes with BYD’s Seagull model. The intensifying competition comes as BYD faces pressure from multiple fronts including Apple rival-turned EV maker Xiaomi and Tesla, which sold 71,000 vehicles in China during September. This domestic struggle contrasts sharply with BYD’s overseas performance, where sales surged 169% last month and the company even outsold Tesla in the European Union during August.
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The Inevitable Market Shakeout
What we’re witnessing is the long-predicted consolidation of China’s overcrowded EV market finally materializing. With over 100 companies competing for market share, the industry was never sustainable at its current scale. The simultaneous success of multiple competitors reporting record sales—Xpeng’s October deliveries, Nio’s strong performance, and Leapmotor’s delivery numbers—while the market leader stumbles indicates that we’re entering the phase where only the most efficient and well-capitalized players will survive. BYD executive Stella Li’s prediction that fewer than 20 carmakers will remain appears increasingly prescient as the market reaches saturation point.
Where BYD Is Feeling the Squeeze
The competitive pressure is most acute in the budget segment where BYD built its dominance. Geely’s success with its Galaxy brand, which has sold over a million vehicles this year, demonstrates how quickly market positions can shift. The Xingyuan’s $9,250 price point directly targets BYD’s Seagull, putting pressure on margins in what was previously BYD’s stronghold. Meanwhile, Geely’s record October sales of over 307,000 vehicles show the conglomerate’s diversified brand strategy—including European brands Polestar and Volvo—provides insulation against market volatility that BYD lacks.
The Overseas Survival Strategy
BYD’s international expansion represents the company’s primary hedge against domestic market saturation. The 169% overseas sales growth and projected 1 million exports this year provide crucial breathing room. More importantly, as Morgan Stanley analysts noted, international sales tend to be more profitable than domestic ones, potentially offsetting margin compression at home. BYD’s aggressive European expansion—with factories underway in Hungary and Turkey and plans for 1,000 new stores—positions the company to capture market share in regions where Chinese brands face less regulatory resistance than in the effectively closed US market.
Tesla’s Surprising Staying Power
While much attention focuses on Chinese competitors, Tesla’s resilience deserves examination. The fact that Tesla sold 71,000 vehicles in China during September, only slightly below last year’s figures, suggests the American automaker has successfully defended its premium positioning despite the price war. Tesla’s ability to maintain sales volume while BYD struggles indicates that brand strength and product differentiation still matter even in a hyper-competitive market. This contrasts with the experience of many Chinese startups that relied primarily on price competition to gain share.
Strategic Implications for the Global EV Market
The current shakeout has profound implications beyond China’s borders. As domestic competition intensifies, Chinese EV makers will increasingly look overseas for growth, potentially triggering price wars in other markets. BYD’s ambitious international targets—aiming for half of sales from outside China—suggest we’re entering a new phase of global EV competition. The companies that survive China’s consolidation will emerge as leaner, more efficient competitors with the scale to challenge established automakers worldwide. For investors and industry observers, the current turbulence represents not just a crisis for BYD but a maturation of the entire EV sector that will determine which players lead the next phase of global electrification.
