Is Adobe Stock Finally a Buy After Its Rough Year?

Nov 4, 2025 10:07 AM ESTby Darren Holt • 2 min read

According to Forbes, Adobe stock has taken a beating this year with a 23% decline, putting it back in that $320-$354 support range where it’s historically found buyers. The stock has bounced from this zone seven times over the past decade, delivering average peak returns around 40%. The current slump comes amid intensifying AI competition and concerns about Adobe’s premium pricing versus emerging alternatives.

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The Real Question

Here’s the thing – technical patterns are nice, but is this time actually different? Adobe’s facing something it hasn’t really dealt with before: legitimate AI-powered competition that could actually threaten its creative software dominance. Tools like Midjourney and Stable Diffusion are getting scarily good, and they’re way cheaper than Adobe’s subscription model.

And let’s be honest – when you look at Adobe’s crash history, this stock doesn’t exactly scream “safe haven.” We’re talking 72% drops during the dot-com bust, 67% during the financial crisis, even 60% during the 2022 inflation scare. This isn’t some defensive stock that holds up when markets get rough.

AI Threat or Opportunity?

So what’s the play here? Basically, you’ve got to decide whether Adobe can actually compete in the AI era or if it’s becoming the next legacy software company that gets disrupted. The company’s been adding AI features to Creative Cloud, but are they enough to justify those high subscription fees when there are so many free or cheap alternatives popping up?

I think the bigger question is whether Adobe’s enterprise customers will stick around. Creative professionals might experiment with new tools, but businesses running on Adobe’s ecosystem? That’s a much harder switch. The moat might be deeper than it appears.

Bottom Line

Look, if you believe Adobe can successfully integrate AI without cannibalizing its own business model, this dip might be attractive. The historical support level stuff is interesting, but past performance doesn’t guarantee future results – especially when the competitive landscape is shifting this dramatically.

This feels like one of those moments where you either buy the fear or wait for more clarity. The technical setup suggests a bounce might be coming, but the fundamental story has definitely changed. What do you think – is Adobe adapting fast enough, or is this the beginning of a longer decline?

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