According to Wccftech, Nintendo just dropped its quarterly results and revealed the Switch 2 has already sold 10.36 million units as of September 30. That’s significantly faster than the original Switch, which took about ten months to hit similar numbers. Software sales hit 20.62 million, with Mario Kart World dominating at 9.57 million units. And get this – Nintendo just boosted its full-year forecast from 15 million to 19 million units despite those pesky US tariffs.
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The Honeymoon Phase
Look, these numbers are undeniably impressive. Selling 10 million consoles in what’s essentially the launch window? That’s Nintendo firing on all cylinders. But here’s the thing – every console has its honeymoon period. The real test comes when the hardcore fans have their units and Nintendo needs to convince the more hesitant buyers.
Remember the Wii U? That thing sold 3 million in its first six weeks, then completely collapsed. I’m not saying the Switch 2 will follow that path, but early success doesn’t guarantee long-term dominance. The fact that they’re already selling nearly two games per console suggests people are actually playing this thing, not just letting it collect dust. That’s a good sign.
The Tariff Problem
Now let’s talk about those tariffs. DFC Intelligence actually downgraded their forecast specifically because of this issue, and Nintendo’s own initial 15 million forecast seemed pretty conservative. So what changed? Did they find a workaround? Are they eating the cost? The official financial report doesn’t really break this down.
Basically, if Nintendo is absorbing those tariff costs to maintain pricing, that’s going to eat into margins. And if they pass them along to consumers? Well, we’ve seen what happened when Sony and Microsoft tried to raise prices mid-generation. It doesn’t usually go well. This tariff situation feels like a sword hanging over the entire launch.
The Software Situation
Mario Kart World selling 9.57 million copies is basically what you’d expect – it’s Nintendo’s killer app. But what about everything else? Donkey Kong Bananza moving 3.49 million units is solid, but that means the remaining 7.5 million software sales are spread across everything else. That’s a pretty steep drop-off.
And here’s my concern: where are the third-party heavy hitters? The original Switch struggled with this for years before finding its footing. If Nintendo can’t keep the software pipeline packed with must-have titles, that 2:1 software-to-hardware ratio is going to plummet. People buy consoles for games, not just hardware specs.
Long Game vs Short-Term Wins
The original Switch is basically on life support now – 1.89 million units in six months tells you everything. Nintendo’s clearly shifting all its energy to the new platform. But hitting 19 million in year one would be absolutely massive. For context, the PS5 sold about 17 million in its first full year, and that was during supply chain nightmares.
Still, I can’t help but wonder: is this sustainable? The gaming market feels more fragmented than ever with PC handhelds, mobile, and subscription services all competing for attention. Nintendo’s betting big that people still want dedicated gaming hardware. These early numbers suggest they’re right – but the real battle starts now.
The broader market context matters too. We’re in a weird economic moment where discretionary spending is getting squeezed from every direction. For Nintendo to not just survive but thrive? That’s the real story here.
