Why Qualcomm and MediaTek’s Rumored Shift to Samsung’s 2nm Process Faces Major Hurdles

Industry Sources Cast Doubt on Foundry Switch Amid Timing and Cost Concerns

Recent speculation about Qualcomm and MediaTek transitioning their 2nm chip production to Samsung Foundry appears increasingly unlikely according to multiple supply chain sources. While initial reports suggested both semiconductor designers were exploring alternatives to TSMC due to rising costs, industry insiders now highlight significant timing and strategic obstacles that make such a shift impractical in the near term.

The Timing Dilemma: Why 2025 Transition Seems Impossible

Supply chain sources speaking to DigiTimes indicate that the proposed timeline for Qualcomm and MediaTek to adopt Samsung’s 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology doesn’t align with product development cycles. According to these sources, the first chips utilizing Samsung’s 2nm process wouldn’t launch until 2027, not the 2025 timeframe that would be necessary for competitive positioning.

This timing conflict becomes particularly relevant when considering MediaTek’s recent announcement that it had successfully completed the tape-out of its first 2nm chip, scheduled for late 2026. While MediaTek didn’t specify its foundry partner, industry experts note that such advanced tape-outs typically occur with established manufacturing partners rather than new foundry relationships.

The Cost Conundrum: Are 2nm Wafers Really Prohibitively Expensive?

Initial reports suggesting TSMC would charge $30,000 per 2nm wafer sparked concerns about affordability for chip designers. However, sources now indicate that Qualcomm and MediaTek have reached an acceptable cost level with TSMC, choosing to maintain technological parity with Apple rather than falling behind by switching foundries.

This strategic calculation reflects the companies’ broader market positioning. As one industry analyst noted, “The cost of being a generation behind Apple in process technology may outweigh the savings from switching to a cheaper foundry partner.” Both companies experienced being a generation behind Apple when they used TSMC’s first-generation 3nm process (N3B) for their Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300 chipsets.

Current Pricing Realities and Future Projections

Examining current chipset manufacturing costs provides context for the 2nm decision-making process:

• Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5: Approximately $280 per unit
• Dimensity 9500: Up to $200 per unit
• Apple’s tape-out costs for M3 series on 3nm: Estimated $1 billion

Even with TSMC’s anticipated 2nm wafer pricing, MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 is expected to remain under $300 per unit next year, while Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 might slightly exceed this threshold. These figures suggest that while costs are rising, they remain within manageable parameters for leading chip designers.

Samsung’s Evaluation Process: Strategic Positioning or Genuine Interest?

The persistence of rumors about Qualcomm’s engagement with Samsung stems from credible reports that Qualcomm has requested 2nm GAA samples of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for evaluation. This doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent switch, but rather reflects the normal due diligence that semiconductor companies conduct with multiple foundry partners., as previous analysis

Industry observers note that Korean media often amplifies potential business deals that may represent longer-term positioning rather than immediate partnerships. As one source commented, “The semiconductor industry thrives on speculation, but actual foundry decisions involve complex technical and commercial considerations that extend beyond initial discussions.”

The Road Ahead: Monitoring Samsung’s 2nm Progress

While an immediate transition appears unlikely, Qualcomm and MediaTek will closely monitor Samsung’s 2nm GAA technology development and the performance of Samsung’s own Exynos 2600 chipset. If Samsung demonstrates superior performance, yield rates, or cost efficiency with its 2nm process, the competitive dynamics could shift rapidly.

The semiconductor industry’s foundry relationships remain fluid, with companies constantly evaluating their options. However, for the critical 2nm transition period, the evidence suggests Qualcomm and MediaTek will maintain their primary partnerships with TSMC while keeping Samsung as a strategic alternative for future generations.

References & Further Reading

This article draws from multiple authoritative sources. For more information, please consult:

• https://profile.google.com/cp/Cg0vZy8xMWM3NDB2MmIyGgA
• https://google.com/preferences/source?q=wccftech.com

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